Because I’ve digested 33 of the 35 full-length features nominated for Oscars this year and all 15 shorts — that’s 96% of nominees in the main categories to be awarded during tonight’s televised event — friends keep asking me for my picks.
I’m not in it to score points with predictions. Hollywood was ravaged this year, so I mostly predict the unpredictable. Besides, the whole politicization of the arts — distributor campaigns, stars being told to behave to curry favor with voters — disgusts me.
But here goes, picking with my heart and not my head:
Best pic: Anora
This was my favorite even before all the critics started defecting to it from “The Brutalist” (which was a brutal 3.5-hour experience, even with a blessed intermission). “Anora” feels like a Jersey girl opera in three acts: The first is soft porn, the second is screwball, and the third is so not a happy ending. But what a wild ride, and I happen to like movies that push all my buttons: arousal, surprise, hilarity, awe, tears — and, with its gut-punch ending, a surprising feminist thrust.
Close second: “Emilia Perez,” which reinvented the movie musical.
Best director: James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
It’s no accident all the performances were brilliant in this ode to Dylan; Mangold created the space and synergy for the cast to recreate (not mimic) iconic artists and historic times. Rather than explain who they were and how they got that way, he deepened their enigma and that of the Sixties. Because he also co-wrote the screenplay, I think this man deserves to be completely known.
Best actress: Mikey Madison
All the critics whine about how fraught this decision is, but I’m just going with my gut and the person who impressed me most. Despite the courage Demi Moore needed for her disquieting role, Mikey seemed braver and more vulnerable. And, oh yeah, the acting. It is an acting category and not just a study of the female form.
Best actor: Sebastian Stan
I’m likely alone in this, but I watched “The Apprentice” three times and “A Different Man” twice. This true immigrant actor (Romanian American) is a shape shifter extraordinaire. And for those who haven’t seen “The Apprentice” yet, you must.
Close second: Timothée Chalamet (he’s probably my more serious pick, but they say the only actor to win this category while under 30 was Adrien Brody and that all planets are aligned for Brody to win again. Pooh. If Brody wins, it’s only a credit to the AI technicians who manipulated his every word of dialogue to capture a Hungarian accent. Brody should be disqualified!)
Supporting actress: Zoe Saldaña
Just wow.
Close second: Ariana Grande
Who knew?!
Supporting actor: Kieran Culkin
That scene in the plaza with the statues — as I was splitting my sides, I realized that too few films make me LOL anymore. Then I found out it was all improv by Culkin. Case closed. (Because he’s also daringly poignant and endearing.)
Close second: Yura Borisov
Original screenplay: Anora
A literal tie: A Real Pain.
Adapted screenplay: Nickel Boys
Close second: Sing Sing
International feature: I’m Still Here
I had to go to the actual movie theater to see this one — and it was one of those that had only, say, 30 seats because of low demand — but there I found three other solo people, my “tribe,” who were so moved that we stayed standing for the credits and wept as the ushers swept, then met in the hallway for a quick film discussion. A beautiful cinematic experience. We represented a diverse clique in ages and backgrounds, so this film has undisputed universal appeal.
Animated feature: Memoir of a Snail
This work actually improved my mental health. As did “Inside Out 2,” but the artistry involved was exquisite.
Documentary feature: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Such an original, jazzy format! I’m handicapped in this category because I couldn’t see either “No Other Land” or “Porcelain War,” for lack of wide release. But if I had to pick between those two wars and themes, I’d side with Ukraine, for“Porcelain War.”
Original score: Conclave
My dear departed brother taught me how to listen to movies. I think he’d agree with me here. He also would have dug the soundtrack to “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat.”
Original song: “El Mal,” from Emilia Perez
As much as I’m an Elton John fan, I’m of the opinion the original song awardee should be part of the movie, not just piped in over the credits. And this scene was jaw-dropping and unforgettable.
Cinematography: Maria
This movie should have been nominated for Sound Design for the way they mixed Maria Callas recordings with Angelina Jolie’s vocals. Overall a moving picture (get it?) and it must win for something, so I’m honoring it here.
Costume design: Gladiator II
Can’t believe I’m choosing this, but I just kept staring at the costumes, which made me wish I’d lived in ancient Rome.
Editing: Emilia Perez
The mind boggles what the cutting-room floor looked like afterward.
Makeup and hairstyling: The Substance
OK, whatever.
Close second: A Different Man
Production design: Conclave
I know it’ll be “Dune: Part Two,” but ugh. Gotta root for true art.
Sound: A Complete Unknown
(I could finally understand all of Dylan’s words? Ha. Just throwing a bone here.)
Visual effects: Dune: Part Two
There’s no fighting it. But I would prefer to see “Better Man” win — a movie I didn’t think I’d like but ended up loving.
Animated short: Magic Candies
Also made me LOL.
Close second: Beautiful Men, despite its gratuitous nudity — or maybe because of it? I’m a sucker for beautiful.
Live-action short: This is my toughest category, the hands-down best of the season. I watched most of them three times, and all felt more like documentaries than fiction — with the exception of “I’m Not a Robot,” which was more cautionary tale, always a crowd-pleaser, brilliantly amusing, and could “captcha” the popular vote. The more I watch it, the more I realize every frame is magic. I’m happy with any winner! The critical front-runner, “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” from Croatia (interesting that the man in the title is not exactly the protagonist) is connecting with voters and critics because, I believe, it explores the specter of an authoritarian regime and the rapid dissolution of civil rights. I wrote about “A Lien” in a recent blog post, and it also mirrors people’s fears ripped from the headlines. “Anuja” is joyful, tear-jerking … the perfect short film — and it holds Easter egg rewards if you watch the full credits. But “The Last Ranger” might be my first pick, because its themes about protecting wildlife at all costs and mentoring the next generation of strong women are nearest and dearest to my heart. (With “I’m Not a Robot” a close second.)
Documentary short: Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Japanese British filmmaker spent a year in this school shooting footage for a larger project to show what Japan teaches its children, and how those lessons knit together the fabric of society. This tender, at times brutal narrative about Ayame, a first-grader auditioning and performing in a concert for the incoming class, was extracted from the larger project. But man. It’s powerful and will slay you. (Can I adopt Ayame? While I’m at it, can I adopt Anuja?)
Close second: Incident
This gets second only because all the footage came from police body cameras and surveillance cameras. But what a masterful editing job — and what a horrendous indictment of police brutality.
Special award for screenwriting: Death by Numbers
Sam Fuentes, a victim of the 2018 mass shooting at a Parkland, Florida, school, wrote this script. She is nothing short of a poet, and a hero. (Oh. Can I also adopt Sam? No offense to my own daughters, but this year’s crop ignited a powerful maternal instinct — including “The Last Ranger.” OK, that seals it. I want “The Last Ranger” to win. )
But I’ll be happy with any outcome in the last two categories. Now … on with the show! And see you next year at the movies.




















































